행동경제학의 교훈
In fact, I think there are three main lessons from behavior economics.
우리는 행동경제학에서 세 가지 교훈을 얻을 수 있습니다.
The first one is to recognize that we have many faults. There are many decision biases and there are many things that we don't do right. That's the first thing. "Just to realize that we have these faults across a huge range of activities.“
첫 번째는 우리가 무엇인가를 판단을 할 때, 편향(편견)의 영향을 받기 때문에, 제대로 판단하지 못하는 경우가 많습니다. 이것이 첫 번째 교훈입니다. “광범위한 활동에 있어서 우리는 여러 가지 결함을 가지고 있습니다.”
The second thing to realize is that we don't have good intuition about all of those faults. It's not as if we see them, and recognize them easily.
두 번째는 우리가 이런 결함들에 대해 정확한 직관을 가지고 있지 않다는 것입니다. 우리는 우리의 결함들을 정확히 보지 못합니다.
And the third point, which comes from the first two, is that we have faults and we don't recognize them, we need experiments. We need not to rely on our intuition. Instead we need to measure exactly what's going on. In the same way that in a visual illusion, you have to measure exactly the length of a table in a table illusion. You have to measure the color in the cube illusion. If you rely on your own intuition, you will get it wrong, in the same way that when we set things that rely on human behavior, we can't just rely on our intuition. We have to rely on actual measurement. We have to do experiments and we have to test ourselves.
세 번째는 우리에게 결함이 있고, 그것을 제대로 쉽게 알아차리지 못하기 때문에, 실험을 해야 한다는 것입니다. 우리는 직관에 의존하지 않고, 정확히 측정할 필요가 있습니다. 그것을 여러 가지 착시 현상에서 우리의 감각에 의존하지 않고 자 등을 이용하여 거리를 정확히 측정해야 하는 것과 마찬가지입니다. 우리는 실험을 해야 합니다.
And maybe big analogy to think about is the American FDA. So the Food and Drug administration forces physicians to do experiments. They take physicians who think they have a good idea of how to do something better. And they say before you implement it, before you force some patients to do it, we want you to prove to us that this is going to pass some scientific barrier.
아마도 가장 좋은 비유는 미국의 FDA입니다. FDA는 의사들에게 실험을 하도록 요구합니다. FDA에 따르면, 자신이 더 나은 방법을 개발했다고 믿는 의사들은 그것을 실제 치료에 적용하기 전에 그것이 과학적인 기준을 통과함을 증명해야 합니다.
And there's lots of things that after doing them for many years we discover were bad idea. For example, cough medications. For 30 years, we gave cough medication to kids until we figure out that this was actually a bad idea. Not a neutral idea. A bad idea. Back surgeries, for a long time they did all kinds of back surgery for things that they showed later on were useless. And so there are many experiments and things like that you have intuition of why this particular medication, this particular procedure would work. But in face they don't. But in fact they don't and we have to force physicians to do these experiment. Because the physicians think that they know what's good. They have a theory of what would work. and they want to give it to all the patients. But we don't let them, we stop them and we say "Sorry, you can't just follow your intuition and do it."
수년간 지속되어 실시되었지만, 그것이 나쁜 방법이었음이 밝혀진 사례는 매우 많습니다. 예를 들어, 지난 30년 동안 아이들에게 감기약을 주었지만, 그것이 나쁜 방법임이 밝혀졌습니다. 중립적인 방법이 아닙니다. 나쁜 방법이었습니다. 허리 수술의 경우도 마찬가지입니다. 매우 오랫 동안 우리는 여러 가지 허리 수술을 했지만 그 중 일부는 쓸모없음이 밝혀졌습니다. (중략) 의사들은 어떤 방법이 작동할 것이라는 직관(혹은 이론)만으로 그것을 환자에게 행하려 합니다. 하지만 그렇게 내버려 둘 순 없습니다.
And I think we need the same discipline for governments and businesses. I think we need the same intuition to tell people in government before you apply any particular policy that is going to be affecting a lot of people, we want you to test it and show us that it's indeed useful. And to businesses, too. I think businesses before they apply something or do something, I think they should have their own barrier of what is a proof that they are going to consider before they're going to apply something and if we took a bit more modesty in what our opinions are and how successful and correct we are. I think we would actually do things in a better way.
(중략)
In Roman times, there was this famous saying called "Momento Mori". The idea was that as generals had victories in all kinds of battle fields, they would come to Rome and they would have a parade and people would yell at them and celebrate, and they would wear gold and all kinds of, get gifts and showered with presents and so on. But in the same way that they were hailed as gods for the day, They also had a slave that was stationed next to them, walking next to them, and saying all the time in the ear, "Momento Mori, Moment Mori" which meant "Remember you're mortal. Remember you're mortal. Don't let that get into your head.“
로마 시대에 “죽음을 기억하라.”는 유명한 어구가 있었습니다. 전장에서 전투를 승리로 이끌고 로마로 돌아온 장군을 위해 퍼레이드가 펼쳐지고 사람들이 환호성을 지릅니다. 장군은 금으로 치장하고, 선물 공세가 이어집니다. 그 때 옆에 서 있던 노예가 장군의 귀에 대고 말합니다. “죽음을 기억하십시오. 죽음을 기억하십시오.” 그것은 “언제간 당신도 죽게 될 것임을 기억하십시오.”라는 의미입니다.
I think it's the same way to remind ourselves of. Remeber that we're limited Remember that we're irrational. We have to test ourselves and check ourselves and
don't trust our intuition to a high degree.
우리는 마찬가지로 기억해야 합니다. 우리는 우리에게 한계가 있음을 기억해야 합니다. 우리는 우리가 비이성적임을 기억해야 합니다. 우리는 우리 자신을 시험하고 검증해야 합니다. 우리는 우리의 직관을 너무 믿으면 안 됩니다.
from